Affichage des archives de jeudi, 15 septembre 2005
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2005 Sep 15 2204 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 258 publié à 2200Z le 15 Sep 2005IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 14-2100Z au 15-2100Z Solar activity was high. Region 808 (S11W22) produced
an X1.1/2n flare at 15/0838 UTC with an associated 450 sfu Tenflare.
This region was also responsible for several C and low M-class
flares throughout the period. Region 808 has changed very little in
the last 24 hours and retains a beta-gamma-delta magnetic
configuration.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to continue
at moderate to high levels. Region 808 is expected to continue to
produce M-class activity and still has the potential to produce an
isolated X-flare.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 14-2100Z au 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to severe storm levels.
Geomagnetic storming occurred in response to the arrival of a CME
associated with the double peak X-flare on 13 September. A 29 nT
sudden impulse was observed in the Boulder magnetometer at 15/0907
UTC. Solar wind speed at ACE rose from approximately 600 km/s to
near 900 km/s. The most disturbed periods occurred between 12 and 18
UTC following periods of southward Bz to near -15 nT. The greater
than 10 MeV proton flux increased during the shock passage to 235
pfu before declining to around 13 pfu by the end of the period. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels today.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels with the
possibility of isolated major storm periods. Conditions should
decrease to quiet to unsettled on 17 and 18 September.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 16 Sep au 18 Sep
| Classe M | 70% | 65% | 60% |
| Classe X | 50% | 40% | 30% |
| Proton | 50% | 40% | 30% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 15 Sep 119 Prévisionnel 16 Sep-18 Sep 115/110/110 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 15 Sep 092
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 14 Sep 013/025 Estimé Afr/Ap 15 Sep 025/050 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 16 Sep-18 Sep 018/025-008/015-008/010
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 16 Sep au 18 Sep
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 35% | 20% | 20% |
| Tempête mineure | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 35% | 30% | 25% |
| Tempête mineure | 30% | 15% | 10% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 15% | 05% | 01% |
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