Affichage des archives de lundi, 1 août 2005
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2005 Aug 01 2204 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 213 publié à 2200Z le 01 Aug 2005IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 31-2100Z au 01-2100Z Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 792
(N12E25) produced the largest flare during the period, a long
duration M1/1f flare that occurred at 01/1351Z. This event
generated an associated Tenflare (290 sfu), a Type IV radio sweep,
and a CME that may have a weak geoeffective component. Region 792
underwent a decrease in sunspot number however, sunspot area has
remained the same. This region continues to exhibit
beta-gamma-delta magnetic features. Region 794 (S11E60) produced
the second largest flare during the period, a C5 x-ray event that
occurred at 01/1221Z. This region has shown growth in sunspot area
over the interval. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate levels. Region 792 is capable of producing M-class flares.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 31-2100Z au 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. The elevated
activity may be attributed to a weak transient that was observed at
the ACE spacecraft at approximately 01/0500Z. The greater than 10
MeV proton event that began at 27/2300Z ended at 01/1040Z, a maximum
of 41 pfu occurred at 29/1715Z.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels. Isolated
active conditions are possible on 04 August due to a glancing blow
from the CME that was associated with the M1/1f flare that occurred
today.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 02 Aug au 04 Aug
| Classe M | 70% | 70% | 70% |
| Classe X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 01 Aug 111 Prévisionnel 02 Aug-04 Aug 110/105/105 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 01 Aug 096
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 31 Jul 010/009 Estimé Afr/Ap 01 Aug 015/015 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 02 Aug-04 Aug 012/015-005/005-012/015
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 02 Aug au 04 Aug
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 30% | 15% | 30% |
| Tempête mineure | 10% | 05% | 10% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 05% | 01% | 05% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 35% | 20% | 35% |
| Tempête mineure | 15% | 05% | 15% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 05% | 01% | 05% |
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