Affichage des archives de dimanche, 31 juillet 2005
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2005 Jul 31 2224 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 212 publié à 2200Z le 31 Jul 2005IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 30-2100Z au 31-2100Z Solar activity was moderate during the last 24 hours.
Region 792 (N12E38) produced today's only M-class event, an M1 at 1224 UTC.
The group produced additional B-class events during the day. This
region does not appear to have changed very much during the past 24
hours; it continues to be the largest on the disk and is a compact
group of spots with a beta-gamma-delta magnetic classification.
Region 791 (N12W62) produced a C7/Sf at 0932 UTC but was otherwise
quiet and stable. Two new regions rotated into view today: Region
794 (S11E73) and Region 795 (N15E77). Both appear to be simple
H-type groups at this time.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate with Region 792 as the most likely source for activity.
There continues to be a chance for isolated major flare activity out
of 792.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 30-2100Z au 31-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet during the past 24 hours. The
greater than 10 MeV event that began at 27/2300 UTC and reached
maximum of 41 PFU at 29/1715 UTC continues in progress but was
slowly declining during the day. The greater than
2 MeV electron flux reached high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is
expected to become mostly active with a chance for isolated minor
storm periods for 01 August due to the arrival of a glancing blow
from the X1/CME of 30/0635 UTC. Conditions should decline to
unsettled with occasional active periods for 02 August and should
be predominantly quiet on 03 August.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 01 Aug au 03 Aug
| Classe M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Classe X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 31 Jul 110 Prévisionnel 01 Aug-03 Aug 115/115/110 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 31 Jul 096
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 30 Jul 011/016 Estimé Afr/Ap 31 Jul 007/015 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 01 Aug-03 Aug 020/025-015/015-007/005
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 01 Aug au 03 Aug
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 40% | 35% | 20% |
| Tempête mineure | 25% | 15% | 10% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 30% | 30% | 20% |
| Tempête mineure | 30% | 20% | 10% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 15% | 10% | 05% |
Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC
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