Affichage des archives de mardi, 5 juillet 2005
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2005 Jul 05 2210 UTC# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 186 publié à 2200Z le 05 Jul 2005IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 04-2100Z au 05-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 788 (S06E32) produced a
C1/Sf flare with an observed optical Y-shaped ribbon at 05/1526 UTC.
This event had an associated partial halo CME which was first
observed in the LASCO imagery at 05/1530 UTC. There were two other
CME's observed by LASCO imagery during the last 24 hours. One was
at 04/2130 UTC and the second was observed at 05/0330 UTC. Both of
these appear to be backside events and not Earth directed. Region
786 (N12E23) has lost its delta magnetic configuration and has
decreased in total sunspot count. Region 783 (S03W22) has grown and
is now around 530 millionths of white light area coverage and has
developed a magnetic beta-gamma configuration. A 26 degree long
filament disappeared from S22W22 between 05/0205-1220 UTC.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be low.
Both Regions 783 and 786 are capable of producing and isolated
M-class event.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 04-2100Z au 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominately quiet for 06-07 July. Quiet to
unsettled conditions with isolated active periods are possible on 08
July due to the effects of the partial halo CME observed today.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 06 Jul au 08 Jul
| Classe M | 45% | 45% | 45% |
| Classe X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 05 Jul 127 Prévisionnel 06 Jul-08 Jul 130/125/120 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 05 Jul 095
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 04 Jul 005/007 Estimé Afr/Ap 05 Jul 005/006 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 06 Jul-08 Jul 005/007-005/007-010/012
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 06 Jul au 08 Jul
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Tempête mineure | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Tempête mineure | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 05% | 05% | 05% |
Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC
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