Vaata teisipäev, 24 juuli 2012 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2012 Jul 24 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 206 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 24 Jul 2012IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 23-2100Z kuni 24-2100Z Solar activity was low. New Region 1530 (S19E68) was
responsible for multiple low level C-class flares. The largest was
a C4/Sf at 24/1905Z. SDO and STEREO-B EUVI 195 imagery show
brightening behind the northeast and southeast limbs, suggesting the
presence of more active regions yet to rotate onto the visible disk.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 23-2100Z kuni 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels with an
isolated minor storm period at high latitudes from 24/1200 - 1500Z.
Solar wind measurements at the ACE spacecraft showed an increase in
solar wind speed from approximately 450 km/s to 580 km/s by 24/0830Z
before decreasing to 500 km/s by the end of the period. This is
likely due to the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high
speed stream. The greater than 10 MeV proton event at
geosynchronous orbit that began at 23/1545Z, reached a maximum flux
of 12 pfu at 23/2145Z and continued to fluctuate near the 10 pfu
threshold. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous
orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with a slight chance for
active periods on day 1 (25 July) due to persistent effects from the
coronal hole high speed stream. Mostly quiet conditions are
expected for days 2 - 3 (26 - 27 July).
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 25 Julkuni 27 Jul
| Klass M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Klass X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Prooton | 30% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 24 Jul 102 Prognoositud 25 Jul-27 Jul 110/115/115 90 päeva keskmine 24 Jul 126
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 23 Jul 008/012 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 24 Jul 009/010 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 25 Jul-27 Jul 008/008-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 25 Jul kuni 27 Jul
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Väike torm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Väike torm | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
Kõik ajad UTC-s
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