Vaata kolmapäev, 27 juuni 2012 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2012 Jun 27 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 179 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 27 Jun 2012IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 26-2100Z kuni 27-2100Z Solar activity was low. Regions 1512 (S15E11) and 1513
(S15E58) each produced low-level C-class flares as well as
occasional optical subflares. Region 1512 showed spot and penumbral
growth in its intermediate portion along with an increase in
magnetic complexity and was classified as a Dki/beta-gamma. Region
1513 showed a minor increase in spot count during the period and was
classified as a Cso/beta. New Regions 1514 (S16E55) and 1515
(S16E70) were numbered and were classified as a Bxo/beta and
Cso/beta, respectively. Region 1515 produced occasional optical
subflares during the latter half of the period. No Earth-directed
coronal mass ejections were observed during the period.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be low
through the period (28 - 30 June) with a chance for an M-class
flare.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 26-2100Z kuni 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet with unsettled to active periods
detected at high latitudes.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet on day 1 (28 June). Field activity is expected
to increase to quiet to unsettled levels on day 2 (29 June) with a
chance for active levels due to the arrival of a co-rotating
interaction region in advance of a coronal hole high-speed stream
(CH HSS). A further increase to unsettled to active levels is
expected on day 3 (29 June) with a chance for minor storm levels due
to CH HSS effects.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 28 Junkuni 30 Jun
| Klass M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Klass X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Prooton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 27 Jun 106 Prognoositud 28 Jun-30 Jun 110/115/115 90 päeva keskmine 27 Jun 118
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 26 Jun 007/009 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 27 Jun 004/005 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 28 Jun-30 Jun 006/007-009/010-015/018
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 28 Jun kuni 30 Jun
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 10% | 15% | 25% |
| Väike torm | 01% | 01% | 10% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Väike torm | 20% | 25% | 30% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 10% | 20% | 40% |
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