Vaata neljapäev, 28 juuni 2012 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2012 Jun 28 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 180 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 28 Jun 2012IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 27-2100Z kuni 28-2100Z Solar activity increased to moderate levels. Region
1513 (N17E45) produced an impulsive M2/1b flare at 28/1612Z along
with occasional B- and C-class flares including a long-duration
C2/Sf at 28/1948Z. Region 1513 showed a minor increase in spot count
and an increase in magnetic complexity (beta-gamma). Region 1512
(S15W02) maintained its beta-gamma magnetic configuration, but
showed little change during the period. This region produced
occasional B- and C-class flares during the period. No new regions
were numbered. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections occurred
during the period.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be low
during the period (29 June - 01 July) with a chance for another
M-class flare.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 27-2100Z kuni 28-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to (briefly) unsettled
levels.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day 1 (29 June) with
a chance for active levels due to the arrival of a co-rotating
interaction region in advance of a recurrent coronal hole high-speed
stream (CH HSS). Field activity is expected to increase to unsettled
to active levels during days 2 - 3 (30 June - 01 July) with a chance
for minor storm levels due to CH HSS effects.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 29 Junkuni 01 Jul
| Klass M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Klass X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Prooton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 28 Jun 120 Prognoositud 29 Jun-01 Jul 115/115/120 90 päeva keskmine 28 Jun 118
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 27 Jun 008/007 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 28 Jun 007/009 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 29 Jun-01 Jul 009/010-015/018-013/015
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 29 Jun kuni 01 Jul
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 15% | 25% | 25% |
| Väike torm | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Väike torm | 25% | 30% | 30% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 20% | 40% | 35% |
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