Vaata esmaspäev, 23 juuli 2012 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2012 Jul 23 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 205 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 23 Jul 2012IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 22-2100Z kuni 23-2100Z Solar activity was low. Newly numbered Regions 1527
(N27E64) and 1529 (S12E71) produced the only C-class flares for the
period: a C2/1f flare at 23/1127Z and a C1 flare at 23/1700Z,
respectively. New Region 1528 (N17E67) was also numbered. Two CMEs
were observed overnight in LASCO C2 imagery. The first was
associated with a filament eruption beyond the northwest limb
beginning at 22/1248Z and the second, an asymmetric full-halo
associated with flare activity from old Region 1520 (S16, L=086)
approximately 40 degrees beyond the west limb beginning at 23/0236Z.
These CMEs are not expected to disturb the geomagnetic field.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low levels with a chance for C-class events for the forecast
period (24 - 26 July).
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 22-2100Z kuni 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels with intervals
of active to minor storm conditions observed at high latitudes
between 23/1200 - 1800Z. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at
geosynchronous orbit exceeded the 10 pfu threshold at 23/1545Z. A
maximum of 12 pfu was reached at 23/1700Z with flux levels still
above threshold as of this report. An enhancement of the greater
than 100 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit was on-going as
well. The proton event is likely associated with flare activity
from old Region 1520 that occurred at approximately 23/0235Z. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels during the period.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with a chance for active
periods on day 1 (24 July) due to effects from a coronal hole high
speed stream. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on day 2
(25 July) as effects begin to diminish. Mostly quiet conditions are
expected on day 3 (26 July).
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 24 Julkuni 26 Jul
| Klass M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Klass X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Prooton | 30% | 05% | 01% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 23 Jul 097 Prognoositud 24 Jul-26 Jul 100/105/110 90 päeva keskmine 23 Jul 126
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 22 Jul 009/009 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 23 Jul 007/008 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 24 Jul-26 Jul 007/015-007/010-006/005
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 24 Jul kuni 26 Jul
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 20% | 10% | 05% |
| Väike torm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Väike torm | 25% | 15% | 10% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 35% | 05% | 05% |
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