Vaata pühapäev, 11 märts 2012 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2012 Mar 11 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 071 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 11 Mar 2012IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 10-2100Z kuni 11-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Region 1429 (N18W38)
exhibited little change over the period and remained a complex Ekc
spot group with Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic characteristics. New
Regions 1433 (N12E63) and 1434 (S22E58) were numbered today.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to range
from low to high levels for the next three days (12 - 14 March).
Further M-class activity is expected from Region 1429 with a chance
for an X-class flare.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 10-2100Z kuni 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled conditions. Solar
wind speed at the ACE spacecraft ranged from 420 km/s to 480 km/s
while the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field did not
vary much beyond +/- 5 nT. The greater than 100 MeV proton event at
geosynchronous orbit that began at 07/0405Z, reached a maximum of 69
pfu at 07/1525Z, and ended at 10/1650Z. The greater than 10 MeV
proton event at geosynchronous orbit that began at 07/0510Z, reached
a maximum of 6530 pfu at 08/1115Z, was still ongoing at the close of
the period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous
orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels with isolated
major storm periods possible on day one (12 March) as the 09 March
CME is expected to become geoeffective. On day two (13 March), the
10 March CME, associated with the M8 flare, is expected to become
geoeffective early to mid-day with minor to severe storm levels
expected. By day three (14 March), conditions are expected to
decrease to unsettled to active levels with isolated minor storm
periods possible. The greater than 10 MeV proton event is expected
to decrease to below event levels by 13 March.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 12 Markuni 14 Mar
| Klass M | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| Klass X | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Prooton | 99% | 60% | 40% |
| PCAF | red | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 11 Mar 131 Prognoositud 12 Mar-14 Mar 130/130/130 90 päeva keskmine 11 Mar 125
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 10 Mar 017/018 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 11 Mar 010/012 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 12 Mar-14 Mar 022/030-030/050-012/015
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 12 Mar kuni 14 Mar
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 35% | 25% | 25% |
| Väike torm | 25% | 30% | 15% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 15% | 25% | 05% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 25% | 15% | 35% |
| Väike torm | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 30% | 60% | 15% |
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