Vaata laupäev, 7 aprill 2012 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2012 Apr 07 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 098 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 07 Apr 2012IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 06-2100Z kuni 07-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 1452 (N17W23) produced a
C2 x-ray flare and occasional B-class flares. It gradually decayed
to a small B-type group during the period. Region 1450 (N15W59)
gradually decayed to a C-type group during the period and produced
an isolated B-class flare. However, it retained a beta-gamma
magnetic configuration. No new regions were numbered.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low during days 1 - 3 (08 - 10 April) with isolated C-class
flares likely from Region 1452.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 06-2100Z kuni 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active with minor to major storm
periods at high latitudes during 07/0900 - 1500Z. This activity was
associated with a period of sustained southward IMF Bz, enhanced IMF
Bt, and increased solar wind speeds.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at mostly quiet levels until late on day 1 (08
April). A CME passage is expected to commence late on day 1 (from
the partial-halo CME observed on 05 April). Consequently, activity
is expected to increase to unsettled levels beginning late on day 1
and continue until early on day 3 (10 April). There will also be a
chance for active levels on day 2 (09 April) along with a chance for
minor storm levels at high latitudes. Activity is expected to
decrease to quiet to unsettled levels on day 3 as CME effects
subside.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 08 Aprkuni 10 Apr
| Klass M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Klass X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Prooton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 07 Apr 099 Prognoositud 08 Apr-10 Apr 100/100/100 90 päeva keskmine 07 Apr 116
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 06 Apr 003/004 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 07 Apr 010/010 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 08 Apr-10 Apr 008/010-013/015-006/008
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 08 Apr kuni 10 Apr
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 10% | 25% | 10% |
| Väike torm | 01% | 15% | 01% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 15% | 30% | 15% |
| Väike torm | 10% | 25% | 10% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 10% | 05% |
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