Vaata esmaspäev, 12 märts 2012 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2012 Mar 12 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 072 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 12 Mar 2012IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 11-2100Z kuni 12-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 1430 (N22W67) produced
a C2 flare at 12/0155Z. Previously active Region 1429 (N18W50) is
now an Ekc type spot group with a beta-gamma magnetic configuration.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for moderate levels. A slight chance for an isolated
X-class flare remains possible from Region 1429.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 11-2100Z kuni 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to major storm levels with
isolated periods of severe storm levels at high latitudes. The ACE
spacecraft observed a sudden storm commencement at 12/0843Z with
wind speeds escalating from 445 to 560 km/s. Total field strength
reached a peak of 28nT and Bz dropped as low as -21nT. A sudden
impulse was observed at 12/0921Z (96nT, as measured by the Boulder
magnetometer). Solar wind speeds reached up to 775 km/s during the
event. The greater than 10 MeV proton event at geosynchronous orbit
remains near 10 pfu as of forecast issue. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the
period.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at active to major storm levels on day one (13 March)
due to CME effects. Unsettled to active conditions are expected on
day two (14 March) as CME effects subside. Day three (15 March) the
geomagnetic field is expected to return to quiet levels.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 13 Markuni 15 Mar
| Klass M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Klass X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Prooton | 60% | 40% | 20% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 12 Mar 115 Prognoositud 13 Mar-15 Mar 115/115/110 90 päeva keskmine 12 Mar 125
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 11 Mar 010/009 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 12 Mar 021/030 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 13 Mar-15 Mar 035/065-015/025-005/005
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 13 Mar kuni 15 Mar
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 30% | 25% | 05% |
| Väike torm | 35% | 15% | 01% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 20% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Väike torm | 20% | 25% | 15% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 65% | 40% | 05% |
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