Vaata neljapäev, 23 juuni 2011 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2011 Jun 23 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 174 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 23 Jun 2011IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 22-2100Z kuni 23-2100Z Solar activity was very low. There were three B class
flares in the past 24 hours. Region 1240 (S18E02) produced a B2 at
0213Z and appeared to be slowly growing. Region 1236 (N16W46) was
unchanged but produced a B5 at 1240Z and a B4 at 1407Z. Region 1239
(N16W27) was slowly decaying.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a chance for an isolated C-class flare.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 22-2100Z kuni 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been unsettled to active for the past 24
hours. ACE solar wind data showed elevated velocities around 600 to
700 km/s consistent with a high speed stream from a favorably
positioned coronal hole. A sudden impulse was observed at 0258Z and
measured 22 nT at the Boulder magnetometer. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the
period.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be active with a chance for minor storm periods at
mid-latitudes and isolated major storm periods at high latitudes for
tomorrow (24 June). This activity is expected as a response to the
arrival of the halo CME observed on 21 June. Conditions are
expected to decrease to unsettled to active levels for the second
day (25 June), and quiet to unsettled levels for the third day (26
June).
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 24 Junkuni 26 Jun
| Klass M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Klass X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Prooton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 23 Jun 096 Prognoositud 24 Jun-26 Jun 095/095/090 90 päeva keskmine 23 Jun 103
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 22 Jun 007/012 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 23 Jun 018/025 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 24 Jun-26 Jun 025/030-012/018-007/012
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 24 Jun kuni 26 Jun
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 30% | 15% | 05% |
| Väike torm | 30% | 10% | 01% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 20% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 25% | 20% | 05% |
| Väike torm | 35% | 15% | 01% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 30% | 10% | 01% |
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