Vaata kolmapäev, 22 juuni 2011 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2011 Jun 23 0135 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 173 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 22 Jun 2011 :::::::::: CORRECTED COPY ::::::::::IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 21-2100Z kuni 22-2100Z Solar activity was very low. There was only one flare
during the past 24 hours, a B2 at 0458Z from Region 1239 (N18W14).
Region 1236 (N16W32) is the largest region on the disk but has
decayed somewhat and is now a 140 millionths, C-type sunspot group.
Region 1239 and 1240 (S19E16) are both small, B-type sunspot groups.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a chance for an isolated C-class flare.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 21-2100Z kuni 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled during the past 24
hours. Observations of the solar wind from the ACE spacecraft
indicate a noticeable increase in solar wind velocity during the
last three hours of the analysis interval with end-of-period speeds
at about 600 km/s. The signatures appear to be consistent with a
high speed stream from a favorably positioned coronal hole.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly active with a chance for minor storm periods
at mid-latitudes and major storm periods at high latitudes for the
next two days (23-24 June). Effects from the high speed stream
should prevail early on the 23rd. An additional contribution to
activity is expected sometime between 1200-1800Z on the 23rd due to
the arrival of the halo CME observed on 21 June. Conditions should
decrease to unsettled to active levels for the third day (25 June).
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 23 Junkuni 25 Jun
| Klass M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Klass X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Prooton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 22 Jun 093 Prognoositud 23 Jun-25 Jun 095/095/095 90 päeva keskmine 22 Jun 103
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 21 Jun 008/010 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 22 Jun 007/008 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 23 Jun-25 Jun 018/018-025/030-012/020
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 23 Jun kuni 25 Jun
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 25% | 30% | 15% |
| Väike torm | 30% | 30% | 10% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 15% | 20% | 05% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 20% | 25% | 15% |
| Väike torm | 35% | 35% | 10% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 25% | 30% | 10% |
Kõik ajad UTC-s
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