Vaata reede, 27 mai 2011 arhiivi

Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2011 May 28 0225 UTC
Valminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga

Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne

:::::::::: CORRECTED COPY :::::::::: SDF number 147 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 27 May 2011

IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 26-2100Z kuni 27-2100Z

Solar activity was low. New Region 1226 (S18E74) produced a B-class event and four C-class events since being numbered today. The largest was a C5 observed at 27/1643Z. This region began with a B1 event at 26/1654Z as it approached the southeast limb yesterday. It is currently an H-type group, however, the region is still rotating onto the disk and more white light area are evident in the SDO/HMI imagery just visible on the limb. Region 1223 (S16W00) produced the only other event during the period, a B4 at 27/0953Z. This region is a Dso group with a beta magnetic classification and grew slightly in sunspot count. Two more regions were numbered today as Regions 1224 (N21W15) and 1225 (N18E55). Region 1224 is a Dso group with a beta magnetic classification and 1225 is another H-type group.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for C-class events, and a slight chance for an M-class event, as regions on the disk continue to evolve.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 26-2100Z kuni 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Observations from the ACE spacecraft suggest the earth is under the continued influence of the co-rotating interaction region in advance of the recurrent coronal hole high speed stream. Solar winds have slowly increased from around 390 to 500 km/s. The IMF Bt averaged around 8 nT with the Bz mostly southward (-8 nT) through the period.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominately unsettled with occasional active periods, including isolated minor storm conditions at high-latitudes for day one (28 May). This is expected due to effects from the recurrent coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). In addition there are possible effects from the disappearing filament observed on 25 May. Quiet to unsettled conditions, with isolated active levels, are expected for days two and three (29-30 May) with continued CH HSS effects.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 28 Maykuni 30 May
Klass M10%10%10%
Klass X01%01%01%
Prooton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
  Vaadeldud       27 May 090
  Prognoositud   28 May-30 May  090/095/095
  90 päeva keskmine        27 May 108
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
  Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 26 May  004/007
  Hinnanguline     Afr/Ap 27 May  010/012
  Prognoositud    Afr/Ap 28 May-30 May  015/018-010/012-008/008
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 28 May kuni 30 May
A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne25%20%15%
Väike torm10%05%05%
Suur-tõsine torm05%01%01%
B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne35%30%20%
Väike torm15%10%10%
Suur-tõsine torm05%05%05%

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