Vaata neljapäev, 9 juuni 2005 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2005 Jun 09 2210 UTC# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 160 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 09 Jun 2005IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 08-2100Z kuni 09-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. Region 775 (N08E08)
produced the largest event of the period which was a long duration
C1.5 x-ray flare that occurred at 09/1334Z. This region underwent
continued growth in sunspot area during the period with the eastern
most delta structure from yesterday becoming detached from the
dominant central spot. Although the delta structure to the south
remains well intact. Region 776 (S06E20) produced a C1 x-ray flare
that occurred at 09/1631Z and white light analysis showed minor
growth in sunspot area. Region 772 (S18W71) appears to have
continued to decay and was quiescent throughout the day. No new
regions were numbered today.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar a activity is expected to be at
low levels. Regions 775 and 776 may both be capable of producing an
isolated low level M-class flare.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 08-2100Z kuni 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels
today.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels.
Beginning late on 11 June, active conditions may occur due to the
arrival of the faint partial halo CME that was observed yesterday.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 10 Junkuni 12 Jun
| Klass M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Klass X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Prooton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 09 Jun 116 Prognoositud 10 Jun-12 Jun 115/115/110 90 päeva keskmine 09 Jun 094
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 08 Jun 003/006 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 09 Jun 001/005 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 10 Jun-12 Jun 002/007-002/007-010/010
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 10 Jun kuni 12 Jun
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 10% | 10% | 20% |
| Väike torm | 01% | 01% | 10% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Väike torm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
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