Vaata reede, 10 juuni 2005 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2005 Jun 10 2210 UTC# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 161 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 10 Jun 2005IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 09-2100Z kuni 10-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. Region 772 (S18W84)
produced the largest flare of the period, a C2 x-ray event that
occurred at 10/0310Z. Region 775 (N08W05) underwent a slight decay
in penumbral coverage today. The southern appendage off the
dominant spot in the cluster continues to exhibit delta
characteristics. No flares were observed from this region during the
period. Region 776 (S06E07) also appeared to show a slight decay
over the interval although the region continues to depict moderate
magnetic complexity. Region 777 (N05E57) was numbered today.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels. Regions 775 and 776 are both capable of producing an
isolated low level M-class flare.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 09-2100Z kuni 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again
today.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels.
Beginning late on 11 June, isolated active conditions may occur due
to the arrival of the very faint partial halo CME that occurred on 8
June.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 11 Junkuni 13 Jun
| Klass M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Klass X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Prooton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 10 Jun 114 Prognoositud 11 Jun-13 Jun 110/100/100 90 päeva keskmine 10 Jun 094
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 09 Jun 003/005 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 10 Jun 003/007 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 11 Jun-13 Jun 003/007-010/012-008/010
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 11 Jun kuni 13 Jun
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 15% | 20% | 15% |
| Väike torm | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 20% | 30% | 20% |
| Väike torm | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
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