Vaata reede, 13 mai 2005 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2005 May 13 2210 UTC# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 133 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 13 May 2005IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 12-2100Z kuni 13-2100Z Solar activity was high. Region 759 (N12E06) produced
an M8/2b flare at 13/1657 UTC. The flare was associated with
significant radio output that included type II/IV sweeps and a 2900
sfu burst at 2695 MHz. This event was also associated with an
apparent Earth-directed CME. Region 758 (S09W81) only managed to
generate a few minor flares over the past 24 hours.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Most activity is expected to occur in Regions 758 and
759.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 12-2100Z kuni 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels. The
greater than 10 MeV proton flux is enhanced from the M8 flare
discussed in Part IA but has not yet crossed the 10 pfu event
threshold. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous
orbit was high.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled for the next 24 hours.
Storm conditions are possible on 15 and 16 May due to the CME
associated with the M8 flare in Region 759. There is a chance that
the greater than 10 MeV proton flux could surpass the 10 pfu event
threshold on 14 May due to the same major event.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 14 Maykuni 16 May
| Klass M | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| Klass X | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Prooton | 30% | 20% | 10% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 13 May 126 Prognoositud 14 May-16 May 120/110/100 90 päeva keskmine 13 May 093
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 12 May 013/017 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 13 May 025/028 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 14 May-16 May 012/015-050/075-030/040
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 14 May kuni 16 May
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Väike torm | 10% | 50% | 50% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 30% | 30% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 25% | 10% | 10% |
| Väike torm | 10% | 60% | 60% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 30% | 30% |
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