Vaata laupäev, 15 juuni 2002 arhiivi

Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2002 Jun 15 2200 UTC
Valminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga

Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne

SDF number 166 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 15 Jun 2002

IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 14-2100Z kuni 15-2100Z

Solar activity has been low. The largest event was an optically uncorrelated C1.7 flare at 15/0058 UTC. Lesser C- and B-class flare activity occurred in Region 0000 (N18E36), Region 1 (N20E38), and newly numbered Region 3 (N00E63). Region 9997 (N12E31) was combined with former Region 9998 to produce a single beta-class group of penless spots. Other regions that emerged on the disk and were numbered today included Region 2 (S24W08) and Region 4 (S16E10).
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be predominantly low. A small chance for an isolated moderate flare exists for the period.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 14-2100Z kuni 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mainly quiet. One isolated unsettled period was observed at higher latitudes near the end of the period.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominantly quiet for the next three days.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 16 Junkuni 18 Jun
Klass M25%30%30%
Klass X01%01%01%
Prooton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
  Vaadeldud       15 Jun 135
  Prognoositud   16 Jun-18 Jun  140/145/145
  90 päeva keskmine        15 Jun 178
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
  Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 14 Jun  004/007
  Hinnanguline     Afr/Ap 15 Jun  003/006
  Prognoositud    Afr/Ap 16 Jun-18 Jun  008/008-005/008-005/008
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 16 Jun kuni 18 Jun
A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne15%10%10%
Väike torm01%01%01%
Suur-tõsine torm01%01%01%
B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne20%15%15%
Väike torm05%05%05%
Suur-tõsine torm01%01%01%
PLAIN This message is for users of the NOAA/SEC Space Weather Operations sunspot region numbers. As you may have noticed, we are steadily approaching region number 10000. The plan for Space Weather operations is to go through the sequence of Region numbers as 9998, 9999, 0000, 0001, and so on. SEC's product text discussions of the active regions will ignore the leading zeroes (for example, we will say 'Region number 5' rather than Region number '0005'). However, the Geoalert product, the Region Report product, as well as the USAF and IUWDS data exchange codes will preserve the 4 digit format. The necessity of using four digits is for operational purposes only. For historical purposes all regions beyond Region 9999 will be understood to be in a series of regions numbers 10000 and higher.

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