Vaata reede, 12 juuli 2002 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2002 Jul 12 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 193 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 12 Jul 2002 . . . . Corrected Copy . . . . . . . .IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 11-2100Z kuni 12-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. Region 30 (N19E37)
appears to be the only flaring region on the visible disk. Multiple
minor B- and C-class flares were produced from this region today.
Magnetic complexity and spot coverage continue to show steady
growth. Region is now depicting a strong delta magnetic
configuration in the trailing portion of cluster, and remains a
beta-gamma-delta magnetic complex. The few remaining spotted
regions have shown little change throughout the period. No new
regions were numbered today.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate levels. Region 30 continues to exhibit the potential for
an isolated major flare.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 11-2100Z kuni 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field activity was at unsettled to minor storm
levels.A coronal hole in the southwest quadrant in concert with a
weak eastern flanking shock, from the partial halo CME observed on
the 07th of July, is believed to be responsible for the elevated
geomagnetic field activity.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels. Isolated
active conditions are possible on day one as the effects from the
geoeffective coronal hole wane.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 13 Julkuni 15 Jul
| Klass M | 70% | 70% | 70% |
| Klass X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Prooton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 12 Jul 133 Prognoositud 13 Jul-15 Jul 135/140/140 90 päeva keskmine 12 Jul 165
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 11 Jul 008/009 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 12 Jul 016/020 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 13 Jul-15 Jul 012/012-008/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 13 Jul kuni 15 Jul
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 25% | 15% | 15% |
| Väike torm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 30% | 20% | 20% |
| Väike torm | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
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