Vaata neljapäev, 9 mai 2002 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2002 May 09 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 129 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 09 May 2002IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 08-2100Z kuni 09-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. Several minor
C-class flares occurred today, the only optically correlated flare
was a C1/Sf flare at 09/0800 UTC, from Region 9937 (S08W11). This
region has undergone a very slight decay in areal coverage of spot
group since yesterday. Region 9934 (S16W32) has continued to show
growth in penumbral coverage although the delta magnetic spot seen
yesterday is no longer evident. Remaining spotted regions were
mostly quiescent today. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. Region 9934 remains capable of producing
M-class flares.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 08-2100Z kuni 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The ACE
satellite indicated the passage of a weak shock (presumed to be the
result of the M1 flare at 07/0346 UTC) at approximately 09/0900 UTC.
The Bz energy channel remained north and several periods of
unsettled conditions persisted.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field activity
is expected to be a quiet to unsettled levels through the forecast
period.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 10 Maykuni 12 May
| Klass M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Klass X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Prooton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 09 May 190 Prognoositud 10 May-12 May 190/190/195 90 päeva keskmine 09 May 187
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 08 May 009/011 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 09 May 012/012 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 10 May-12 May 010/010-008/008-005/008
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 10 May kuni 12 May
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Väike torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Väike torm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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