Vaata reede, 10 mai 2002 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2002 May 10 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 130 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 10 May 2002IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 09-2100Z kuni 10-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. Region 9946 (S06E38)
produced the largest flare of the period, a C4/Sf at 10/0039 UTC.
This region produced a couple of smaller C-class flares as well.
Region 9934 (S16W46) has shown a rapid growth in penumbral coverage
which contributed to the reformation of the delta magnetic complex
in the trailing portion of the cluster. Even so, this region was
limited to minor flares, point brightenings, and surges throughout
the period. Region 9937 (S08W25) produced several small C-class
flares and has shown a slight growth in the spot coverage since
yesterday. Two new regions were numbered today: Region 9947
(N23W46) and Region 9948 (S21E71).
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 9934 appears quite capable of producing M-class
flare activity
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 09-2100Z kuni 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels at middle
latitudes. Quiet to active conditions were seen at the high
latitudes. ACE satellite data suggests a solar sector boundary
crossing may have been responsible for the elevated field activity
at the higher latitudes.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 11 Maykuni 13 May
| Klass M | 45% | 45% | 45% |
| Klass X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Prooton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 10 May 191 Prognoositud 11 May-13 May 195/200/195 90 päeva keskmine 10 May 187
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 09 May 011/010 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 10 May 010/010 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 11 May-13 May 008/010-005/008-005/008
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 11 May kuni 13 May
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Väike torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Väike torm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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