Vaata reede, 12 aprill 2002 arhiivi

Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2002 Apr 12 2200 UTC
Valminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga

Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne

SDF number 102 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 12 Apr 2002

IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 11-2100Z kuni 12-2100Z

Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 9901 (N21W26) produced an M4/1F flare on 12/1802 UTC with an associated Type IV Radio Sweep. Region 9893 (N20W39) has developed a delta magnetic configuration in the trailing spot and has increased in area and spot count. LASCO/EIT imagery indicates that Region 9893 is the most likely source of an optically uncorrelated M1.4 flare that occurred on 12/1310 UTC. Region 9906 (S16E26) has shown rapid growth in spot count, area, and now has a beta-gamma magnetic configuration. This region also shows some indication of a developing delta magnetic configuration. As Region 9907 (S05E61) rotates onto the disk it has revealed a moderate size spot group and a beta-gamma magnetic classification. One new region was numbered today: Region 9908 (N05W25).
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be moderate. Region 9893/9901 complex has been active and has two delta configurations. The potential for M-class events is good. Region 9906 and 9907 are developing and have a slight chance of M-class events.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 11-2100Z kuni 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels with one 3 hour period of minor storm conditions. This isolated minor storm condition coincided with a sector boundary crossing. At the time of this issue the NASA/ACE EPAM data have shown a steady increase in low energy protons possibly due to expected CME shock.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active. A CME shock is expected midday on day one of the forecast period. A second shock expected midday on day two of the forecast period.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 13 Aprkuni 15 Apr
Klass M65%65%60%
Klass X10%10%10%
Prooton10%10%05%
PCAFyellow
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
  Vaadeldud       12 Apr 212
  Prognoositud   13 Apr-15 Apr  210/210/205
  90 päeva keskmine        12 Apr 202
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
  Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 11 Apr  010/013
  Hinnanguline     Afr/Ap 12 Apr  014/015
  Prognoositud    Afr/Ap 13 Apr-15 Apr  015/015-015/020-010/015
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 13 Apr kuni 15 Apr
A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne25%30%30%
Väike torm10%15%15%
Suur-tõsine torm05%05%05%
B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne25%30%30%
Väike torm10%15%15%
Suur-tõsine torm05%05%05%

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