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Vaata pühapäev, 1 oktoober 2000 arhiivi

Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne

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Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2000 Oct 01 2200 UTC
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Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne

SDF number 275 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 01 OCT 2000

IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 30-2100Z kuni 01-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS HIGH. TWO OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED X-RAY FLARES, AN X1 AT 30/2321Z AND M5 AT 01/0701Z, ARE BELIEVED TO HAVE BEEN PRODUCED BY REGION 9169 THAT JUST RECENTLY PASSED BEHIND THE WEST LIMB. A 200 SFU TENFLARE ACCOMPANIED THE M5 EVENT. A LONG-DURATION M2 FLARE AT 01/1410Z IS BELIEVED TO HAVE ORIGINATED FROM REGION 9178 (S22E24); THIS REGION ALSO PRODUCED NUMEROUS C-CLASS FLARES. REGION 9176 (S10E15) PRODUCED A C3/SF FLARE WITH AN ASSOCIATED TYPE II RADIO SWEEP (SHOCK SPEED 1100 KM/S). A 12-DEGREE FILAMENT DISAPPEARED OVERNIGHT FROM N22W37. NEW REGION 9180 (S34W21) WAS NUMBERED TODAY.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE. WHILE REGION 9169, WHICH IS BELIEVED TO HAVE CAUSED THE RECENT MAJOR FLARES, IS NOW WELL BEHIND THE LIMB, BOTH REGIONS 9176 (S09E18) AND 9178 REMAIN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING M-FLARES. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 30/2100Z TO 01/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM ACTIVE TO QUIET CONDITIONS. ACTIVE CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED UNTIL APPROXIMATELY 01/06Z, AT WHICH POINT THE SOLAR WIND SPEED AND INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELD BEGAN TO DROP TO NOMINAL LEVELS. RELATIVISTIC ELECTRONS AT GEO-SYNCHRONOUS ORBIT REACHED MODERATE LEVELS.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE FIRST DAY, WITH ACTIVITY INCREASING FOR THE SECOND AND THIRD DAYS. A RECURRENT CORONAL HOLE WILL BE GEO-EFFECTIVELY POSITIONED BY DAY TWO. IN ADDITION, EFFECTS FROM ANY OF THE MANY SOLAR EVENTS TODAY COULD IMPACT THE EARTH LATE ON DAY TWO INTO DAY THREE.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 02 OCTkuni 04 OCT
Klass M50%50%50%
Klass X05%05%05%
Prooton05%05%05%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
  Vaadeldud       01 OCT 202
  Prognoositud   02 OCT-04 OCT  190/190/185
  90 päeva keskmine        01 OCT 183
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
OBSERVED AFR/AP 30 SEP  025/045
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 01 OCT  015/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 02 OCT-04 OCT  010/010-012/012-015/015
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 02 OCT kuni 04 OCT
A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne15%25%25%
Väike torm05%10%15%
Suur-tõsine torm01%01%05%
B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne20%25%25%
Väike torm05%15%20%
Suur-tõsine torm01%05%10%
VII. COMMENTS EFFECTIVE 2 OCT 2000, SEC WILL ISSUE ITS TEXT PRODUCTS IN MIXED CASE VS. ALL UPPER CASE. THIS CHANGE WILL BE VISIBLE ON ALL SEC PRODUCT DELIVERY SYSTEMS EXCEPT FOR TELETYPE CIRCUITS. ONLY THE CASE OF THE TEXT IN EACH PRODUCT WILL CHANGE, NOT THE FORMAT OR SPACING WITHIN THE PRODUCT. FOR DETAILS SEE OUR WEBSITE AT SEC.NOAA.GOV/MIXEDCASE.HTML
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