Vaata laupäev, 30 september 2000 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2000 Sep 30 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 274 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 30 SEP 2000IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 29-2100Z kuni 30-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. IT IS BELIEVED REGION
9178 (S23E40) PRODUCED A SLOW RISE, LONG DURATION M1 X-RAY EVENT
THAT REACHED MAXIMUM AT 30/1827Z. A SECOND M1 X-RAY EVENT OCCURRED
AT 30/2016Z WITH NO OPTICAL CORRELATION. REGIONS 9173 (S11W02) AND
9178 PRODUCED SEVERAL C-CLASS EVENTS DURING THE PERIOD. GROWTH WAS
OBSERVED IN REGIONS 9173, 9176 (S09E31), AND 9178. REGION 9176 NOW
HAS A BETA-GAMMA MAGNETIC CONFIGURATION WITH APPROXIMATELY 24 SPOTS.
NEW REGION 9179 (N34E07) WAS NUMBERED TODAY.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. REGIONS 9173, 9176 (S09E31), AND 9178 EACH HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE AN M-CLASS EVENT.
IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 29/2100Z TO 30/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM QUIET TO MAJOR STORM LEVELS. A
DISTURBANCE OF UNKNOWN ORIGIN BEGAN AROUND 30/0400Z. MAJOR STORM
LEVELS WERE OBSERVED IN THE HIGH LATITUDES FROM APPROXIMATELY
30/0800 - 1200Z. THE MID LATITUDES OBSERVED MINOR STORM CONDITIONS
DURING THE SAME PERIOD. THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RETURN TO UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM QUIET TO ACTIVE DURING THE FIRST DAY,
BECOMING MORE QUIET TO UNSETTLED THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 01 OCTkuni 03 OCT
| Klass M | 60% | 50% | 50% |
| Klass X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Prooton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 30 SEP 194 Prognoositud 01 OCT-03 OCT 185/180/175 90 päeva keskmine 30 SEP 182
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
OBSERVED AFR/AP 29 SEP 005/007 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 30 SEP 025/032 PREDICTED AFR/AP 01 OCT-03 OCT 012/015-010/012-010/015
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 01 OCT kuni 03 OCT
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 30% | 20% | 20% |
| Väike torm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 35% | 25% | 25% |
| Väike torm | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
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