Vaata esmaspäev, 4 september 2000 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2000 Sep 04 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 248 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 04 SEP 2000IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 03-2100Z kuni 04-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY INCREASED TO MODERATE LEVELS. REGION
9154 (S19E06) SHOWED A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN SPOT COUNT AND AREA.
IT PRODUCED AN M1/1N FLARE AT 04/0109 UTC ALONG WITH ISOLATED
C-CLASS SUBFLARES. REGION 9149 (N14W22) SHOWED NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES AND PRODUCED ISOLATED C-CLASS SUBFLARES. THE REMAINING
REGIONS WERE MOSTLY SMALL AND STABLE. A 32-DEGREE FILAMENT, LAST
SEEN NEAR N13 W38, ERUPTED FROM THE DISK DURING 04/0500 - 0600 UTC.
NO NEW REGIONS WERE ASSIGNED.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE AT
LOW TO MODERATE LEVELS. THERE IS A FAIR CHANCE FOR ANOTHER M-CLASS
FLARE FROM REGION 9154. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN
ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARE FROM REGION 9149.
IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 03/2100Z TO 04/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET UNTIL 04/1330 UTC. FIELD ACTIVITY
INCREASED TO QUIET TO ACTIVE LEVELS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO BE AT QUIET TO ACTIVE LEVELS DURING THE FIRST DAY
DECREASING TO QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS ON THE SECOND DAY. UNSETTLED
TO ACTIVE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED BEGIN LATE ON THE THIRD DAY IN
RESPONSE TO TODAY'S FILAMENT DISAPPEARANCE.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 05 SEPkuni 07 SEP
| Klass M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Klass X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Prooton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 04 SEP 171 Prognoositud 05 SEP-07 SEP 175/175/180 90 päeva keskmine 04 SEP 181
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
OBSERVED AFR/AP 03 SEP 006/009 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 04 SEP 012/012 PREDICTED AFR/AP 05 SEP-07 SEP 010/012-010/015-020/020
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 05 SEP kuni 07 SEP
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 20% | 20% | 40% |
| Väike torm | 05% | 05% | 15% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 25% | 25% | 45% |
| Väike torm | 10% | 10% | 20% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
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