Vaata teisipäev, 5 september 2000 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2000 Sep 05 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 249 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 05 SEP 2000IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 04-2100Z kuni 05-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY DECREASED TO LOW LEVELS. REGION 9154
(S19W07) CONTINUED IN A GRADUAL GROWTH PHASE AND REMAINED THE
LARGEST AND MOST FLARE PRODUCTIVE OF THE VISIBLE REGIONS. IT
PRODUCED OCCASIONAL C-CLASS SUBFLARES, THE LARGEST OF WHICH WAS A
C6/SF AT 05/0008 UTC. REGION 9149 (N13W35) SHOWED SIGNS OF MINOR
DECAY AND PRODUCED AN ISOLATED SUBFLARE. THE REMAINING REGIONS WERE
STABLE. SOHO/LASCO IMAGES INDICATED A PARTIAL-HALO CME ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FILAMENT DISAPPEARANCE OF 4 SEPTEMBER (32-DEGREE EXTENT,
N13W38).
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE AT
LOW TO MODERATE LEVELS. REGION 9154 MAY PRODUCE AN M-CLASS FLARE.
IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 04/2100Z TO 05/2100Z:
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ACTIVITY HAS BEEN AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO BE AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS ON DAY ONE. ACTIVE TO
MAJOR STORM LEVELS ARE FORECAST FOR 7 - 8 SEPTEMBER DUE TO AN
EXPECTED CME PASSAGE AT EARTH ASSOCIATED WITH THE FILAMENT
DISAPPEARANCE OF 4 SEPTEMBER. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX
AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT MAY REACH HIGH LEVELS LATE IN THE PERIOD.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 06 SEPkuni 08 SEP
| Klass M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Klass X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Prooton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 05 SEP 180 Prognoositud 06 SEP-08 SEP 185/190/190 90 päeva keskmine 05 SEP 181
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
OBSERVED AFR/AP 04 SEP 011/014 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 05 SEP 007/015 PREDICTED AFR/AP 06 SEP-08 SEP 015/012-030/030-030/030
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 06 SEP kuni 08 SEP
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Väike torm | 05% | 30% | 30% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 15% | 15% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Väike torm | 10% | 35% | 35% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 20% | 20% |
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