Vaata laupäev, 15 aprill 2000 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2000 Apr 15 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 106 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 15 APR 2000IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 14-2100Z kuni 15-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY INCREASED TO MODERATE LEVELS. REGION
8955 (S22E20) SHOWED A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY
DURING THE PERIOD AND PRODUCED SEVERAL FLARES, TWO OF WHICH REACHED
M-CLASS. THE FIRST WAS AN M4/SF AT 15/1018Z ASSOCIATED WITH A 570
SFU TENFLARE AND A PARTIAL-HALO CME. THE SECOND WAS AN M2/1N AT
15/1448Z. ANOTHER FLARE OF NOTE FROM REGION 8955 WAS A C7/1N AT
15/1905Z ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALL FILAMENT DISAPPEARANCE. MINOR
GROWTH WAS REPORTED IN REGION 8951 (N12W31). REGION 8948 (S16W76)
PRODUCED ISOLATED LOW-LEVEL C-CLASS FLARES AS IT CONTINUED TO DECAY.
THE REMAINING REGIONS WERE STABLE. NO NEW REGIONS WERE ASSIGNED.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE AT
LOW TO MODERATE LEVELS. REGION 8955 MAY PRODUCE ADDITIONAL M-CLASS
FLARES.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 14-2100Z kuni 15-2100Z
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ACTIVITY WAS AT QUIET LEVELS. THE GREATER THAN 2
MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHROUNOUS ORBIT REMAINED AT MODERATE TO
HIGH LEVELS.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE LEVELS DURING 16 APRIL
IN RESPONSE TO A PARTIAL-HALO CME OBSERVED LATE ON 13 APRIL. ACTIVE
LEVELS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON 18 APRIL DUE TO THE PARTIAL-HALO CME
OBSERVED EARLIER TODAY. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX IS
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM NORMAL TO HIGH LEVELS DURING THE PERIOD.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 16 APRkuni 18 APR
| Klass M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Klass X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Prooton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 15 APR 164 Prognoositud 16 APR-18 APR 165/165/165 90 päeva keskmine 15 APR 184
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
OBSERVED AFR/AP 14 APR 002/005 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 15 APR 007/008 PREDICTED AFR/AP 16 APR-18 APR 018/020-010/012-015/018
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 16 APR kuni 18 APR
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 40% | 25% | 30% |
| Väike torm | 20% | 10% | 15% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 45% | 30% | 40% |
| Väike torm | 25% | 15% | 20% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
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