Vaata pühapäev, 16 aprill 2000 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2000 Apr 16 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 107 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 16 APR 2000IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 15-2100Z kuni 16-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8955 (S21E07) ENDURES AS
THE MOST COMPLEX AND ACTIVE REGION ON THE SUN. THIS REGION PRODUCED
A C6/SF AT 15/2143UT AND A C6/1N AT 16/0015UT. BOTH EVENTS WERE
ACCOMPANIED BY MINOR CENTIMETRIC BURSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE
OBSERVED IN THE OVERALL SIZE OF THIS REGION, BUT SOME DECREASE IN
COMPLEXITY WAS NOTED. REGIONS 8957 (S12W90) AND 8959 (S17W25) ALSO
PRODUCED MINOR C-CLASS X-RAY FLARES. NEW REGION 8964 (N34E21) WAS
NUMBERED TODAY.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE FROM REGION
8955.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 15-2100Z kuni 16-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT UNSETTLED TO MINOR STORM LEVELS. MINOR
STORMING BEGAN AFTER A WEAK SHOCK WAS OBSERVED PASSING THE ACE
SPACECRAFT AT 16/0951UT.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD
REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE WITH OCCASIONAL MINOR
STORMING AT HIGH LATITUDES. ACTIVE CONDITIONS MAY BE PROLONGED
THROUGH DAYS TWO AND THREE BY THE ARRIVAL OF A DISTURBANCE FROM THE
M4/CME EVENT ON 15/1018UT.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 17 APRkuni 19 APR
| Klass M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Klass X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Prooton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 16 APR 159 Prognoositud 17 APR-19 APR 160/160/165 90 päeva keskmine 16 APR 184
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
OBSERVED AFR/AP 15 APR 007/007 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 16 APR 022/024 PREDICTED AFR/AP 17 APR-19 APR 015/015-015/018-012/012
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 17 APR kuni 19 APR
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 40% | 40% | 30% |
| Väike torm | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 50% | 50% | 35% |
| Väike torm | 30% | 30% | 20% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 15% | 15% | 05% |
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