Vaata kolmapäev, 7 aprill 1999 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 1999 Apr 07 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 097 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 07 APR 1999IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 06-2100Z kuni 07-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8508 (N22E25) PRODUCED A
C1/SF AT 07/0924Z. THIS REGION WAS STABLE BUT RETAINED MIXED
MAGNETIC POLARITIES. A LONG DURATION C1 EVENT OCCURRED BETWEEN
06/2335-07/0115Z. THIS EVENT WAS MOST LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE
CORONAL MASS EJECTION FROM THE SOUTHEAST LIMB AS SEEN IN SOHO
CORONAGRAPH DATA. REGION 8506 (S26W55) DECAYED AND SIMPLIFIED DURING
THE PERIOD.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD BE PREDOMINANTLY
LOW FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. REGION 8508 REMAINS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING AN OCCASIONAL M-CLASS EVENT.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 06-2100Z kuni 07-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM QUIET TO ACTIVE LEVELS. THE MOST
DISTURBED PERIOD WAS FROM 07/0000-0300Z. AT THAT TIME, SOLAR WIND
DATA DID NOT INDICATE A CME LIKE SIGNATURE. THIS SLIGHT DISTURBANCE
APPEARED TO BE RELATED TO A CONSISTENTLY SOUTHWARD ORIENTED
INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELD. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES AT
GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT REACHED HIGH LEVELS DURING THE PERIOD.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD
REMAIN AT QUIET TO ACTIVE LEVELS FOR 08-09 APR. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
IS EXPECTED ON 08 APR FROM MULTIPLE MASS EJECTIONS OBSERVED ON 04
APR. QUIET TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON 10 APR. THE
ENERGETIC ELECTRON ENHANCEMENT AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT SHOULD DECAY
TO NORMAL LEVELS IN THE NEXT 1-2 DAYS.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 08 APRkuni 10 APR
| Klass M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Klass X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Prooton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 07 APR 141 Prognoositud 08 APR-10 APR 142/143/139 90 päeva keskmine 07 APR 134
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
OBSERVED AFR/AP 06 APR 006/009 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 07 APR 010/010 PREDICTED AFR/AP 08 APR-10 APR 015/012-010/012-010/010
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 08 APR kuni 10 APR
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 30% | 25% | 15% |
| Väike torm | 20% | 15% | 05% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 30% | 25% | 15% |
| Väike torm | 20% | 15% | 05% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
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