Vaata neljapäev, 8 aprill 1999 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 1999 Apr 08 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 098 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 08 APR 1999IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 07-2100Z kuni 08-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 8508 (N22E13)
PRODUCED AN IMPULSIVE M1/SF AT 08/1613Z. THIS EVENT WAS PRECEDED BY
MANY PLAGE FLUCTUATIONS AND SEVERAL SMALL TO MID C-CLASS FLARES FROM
THIS REGION. DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS, REGION 8508 MAINTAINED ITS
MIXED POLARITIES AND GREW AT A MODERATE PACE. A SMALL REGION EMERGED
NEAR S27E53 AND WAS NUMBERED AS REGION 8512.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LOW TO
MODERATE FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. REGION 8508 MAY BE ENTERING A
PHASE OF RE-GROWTH AND THE FREQUENCY OF M-CLASS EVENTS MAY INCREASE.
X-CLASS FLARES ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME BUT CONTINUED GROWTH IN
REGION 8508 WOULD CHANGE THAT FORECAST.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 07-2100Z kuni 08-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD BEGAN THE PERIOD AT QUIET LEVELS. ACTIVE
CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED DURING THE 08/1500-1800Z PERIOD. UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS OCCURRED AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. NO SHOCK WAS OBSERVED
IN THE NEARLY CONTINUOUS SOLAR WIND RECORD AND VELOCITY WAS
RELATIVELY LOW BETWEEN 350-400 KM/S. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES AT
GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT REACHED HIGH LEVELS DURING THE PERIOD.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD BE
PREDOMINANTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. ISOLATED
ACTIVE INTERVALS ARE POSSIBLE ON 09 APR.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 09 APRkuni 11 APR
| Klass M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Klass X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Prooton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 08 APR 139 Prognoositud 09 APR-11 APR 140/139/135 90 päeva keskmine 08 APR 134
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
OBSERVED AFR/AP 07 APR 010/009 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 08 APR 010/012 PREDICTED AFR/AP 09 APR-11 APR 010/010-010/010-008/008
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 09 APR kuni 11 APR
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 25% | 15% | 15% |
| Väike torm | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 01% | 05% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 25% | 15% | 15% |
| Väike torm | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 01% | 05% |
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