Vaata teisipäev, 4 mai 1999 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 1999 May 04 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 124 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 04 MAY 1999IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 03-2100Z kuni 04-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. THIS WAS DUE TO A SINGLE
M1 EVENT THAT OCCURRED AT 03/2311UT. THIS WAS AN OPTICALLY
UNCORRELATED EVENT. THE MOST ACTIVE REGION WAS 8527 (N26E12),
PRODUCING A C2/1F EVENT AT 04/1858. THIS WAS SOMEWHAT UNUSUAL
ACTIVITY FROM A SINGLE SPOT HSX CLASSIFICATION. THE REST OF THE
REGIONS SHOWED LITTLE CHANGE AND ONLY MINOR ACTIVITY DURING THE DAY.
A NEW REGION WAS NUMBERED: 8531 (N18E65), A 2 SPOT CSO BETA GROUP.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENTS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 72
HOURS.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 03-2100Z kuni 04-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY QUIET WITH A SINGLE UNSETTLED PERIOD
OCCURRING AT 04/06-09UT. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRONS AT
GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WERE AT HIGH LEVELS ALL DAY.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM QUIET TO ACTIVE CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT
TWO DAYS. THIS INCREASE SHOULD BE CAUSED BY THE CORONAL MASS
EJECTION THAT OCCURRED ON 03/0606UT AS SEEN BY SOHO-LASCO. THE EPAM
PLOT (ELECTRON AND PROTON PARTICLES) FROM THE ACE SATELLITE HAS
SHOWN A STRONG AND STEADY INCREASE SINCE APPROXIMATELY 03/2200UT.
THIS IS USUALLY AN INDICATOR OF AN IMMINENT SHOCK ARRIVAL AT EARTH.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 05 MAYkuni 07 MAY
| Klass M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Klass X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Prooton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 04 MAY 139 Prognoositud 05 MAY-07 MAY 125/125/125 90 päeva keskmine 04 MAY 129
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
OBSERVED AFR/AP 03 MAY 008/009 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 04 MAY 010/010 PREDICTED AFR/AP 05 MAY-07 MAY 020/020-020/020-015/015
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 05 MAY kuni 07 MAY
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 40% | 40% | 30% |
| Väike torm | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 60% | 60% | 40% |
| Väike torm | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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