Viendo archivo del sábado, 31 enero 2015
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2015 Jan 31 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 31 Publicado el 2200Z a las 31 Jan 2015IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 30-2100Z hasta 31-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
31/1641Z from Region 2275 (S17W80). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on day one (01 Feb) and likely to be
moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on day two (02 Feb)
and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight
chance for an X-class flare on day three (03 Feb).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 30-2100Z a 31-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
469 km/s at 31/0807Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 31/2000Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 31/2020Z.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (01 Feb) and quiet to
active levels on days two and three (02 Feb, 03 Feb). Protons have a
chance of crossing threshold on day one (01 Feb), have a slight chance
of crossing threshold on day two (02 Feb) and have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on day three (03 Feb).
III. Probabilidades del evento 01 Feb a 03 Feb
| Clase M | 70% | 60% | 50% |
| Clase X | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Protón | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 31 Jan 154 Previsto 01 Feb-03 Feb 150/145/135 Media de 90 Días 31 Jan 153
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 30 Jan 008/007 Estimado Afr/Ap 31 Jan 010/011 Previsto Afr/Ap 01 Feb-03 Feb 014/018-014/015-009/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 01 Feb a 03 Feb
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 25% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 15% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 50% | 30% | 25% |
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