Viendo archivo del viernes, 30 enero 2015
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2015 Jan 30 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 30 Publicado el 2200Z a las 30 Jan 2015IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 29-2100Z hasta 30-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
30/1216Z from Region 2277 (N08E47). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (31 Jan, 01
Feb, 02 Feb).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 29-2100Z a 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
466 km/s at 30/1220Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 29/2153Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 30/1540Z.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on days one and two (31 Jan, 01
Feb) and quiet to active levels on day three (02 Feb). Protons have a
chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (31 Jan, 01
Feb, 02 Feb).
III. Probabilidades del evento 31 Jan a 02 Feb
| Clase M | 70% | 70% | 70% |
| Clase X | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Protón | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 30 Jan 159 Previsto 31 Jan-02 Feb 160/155/150 Media de 90 Días 30 Jan 152
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 29 Jan 007/008 Estimado Afr/Ap 30 Jan 011/013 Previsto Afr/Ap 31 Jan-02 Feb 014/018-012/015-010/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 31 Jan a 02 Feb
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 40% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 15% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 60% | 50% | 30% |
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