Viendo archivo del domingo, 1 febrero 2015
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2015 Feb 01 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 32 Publicado el 2200Z a las 01 Feb 2015IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 31-2100Z hasta 01-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
01/1133Z from Region 2268 (S11W57). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(02 Feb, 03 Feb, 04 Feb).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 31-2100Z a 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
748 km/s at 01/2006Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 01/0548Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 01/1946Z.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (02 Feb), quiet to
active levels on day two (03 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (04 Feb). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on
day one (02 Feb) and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days
two and three (03 Feb, 04 Feb).
III. Probabilidades del evento 02 Feb a 04 Feb
| Clase M | 60% | 55% | 55% |
| Clase X | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Protón | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 01 Feb 142 Previsto 02 Feb-04 Feb 135/125/125 Media de 90 Días 01 Feb 153
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 31 Jan 006/006 Estimado Afr/Ap 01 Feb 015/019 Previsto Afr/Ap 02 Feb-04 Feb 016/020-012/015-010/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 02 Feb a 04 Feb
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 45% | 35% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 15% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 35% | 35% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 70% | 45% | 30% |
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