Viendo archivo del martes, 11 septiembre 2012
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2012 Sep 11 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 255 Publicado el 2200Z a las 11 Sep 2012IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 10-2100Z hasta 11-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. Region 1564 (S11W82)
was the most active region with several C-class flares, the largest
of which was a C6/Sf at 10/2356Z. Regions 1567 (N16W02) and 1569
(S12E53) also contributed to the C-class flare activity. Region
1567 decayed throughout the period. There was no Earth directed CME
activity during the period.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for an isolated M-class flare for the first day (12
September). M-class probability is expected to decrease for the
second and third days (13-14 September) as Region 1564 rotates out
of view.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 10-2100Z a 11-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels throughout the period.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be quiet with a slight chance for unsettled levels on
days 1 and 2 (12-13 September). An increase to quiet to unsettled
levels with a slight chance for an active period is expected on the
third day (14 September) due to a favorably positioned coronal hole.
III. Probabilidades del evento 12 Sep a 14 Sep
| Clase M | 20% | 10% | 05% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 11 Sep 105 Previsto 12 Sep-14 Sep 105/100/095 Media de 90 Días 11 Sep 124
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 10 Sep 004/004 Estimado Afr/Ap 11 Sep 003/004 Previsto Afr/Ap 12 Sep-14 Sep 004/005-004/005-007/007
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 12 Sep a 14 Sep
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 05% | 10% |
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