Viendo archivo del miércoles, 15 agosto 2012
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2012 Aug 15 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 228 Publicado el 2200Z a las 15 Aug 2012IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 14-2100Z hasta 15-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 1542 (S14W46) produced
the largest event of the period, a C1/1f flare at 14/2232Z. Region
1543 (N21W34) is the largest region on the disk and showed little
change while maintaining a beta-gamma magnetic configuration. No
Earth-directed CMEs were observed.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low for the next 3 days (16 - 18 August).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 14-2100Z a 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with a slight chance for active
conditions on day 1 (16 August) due to effects from the 13 August
CME. Unsettled to active levels with a slight chance for minor storm
conditions are expected on Day 2 (17 August) due to effects from the
14 August CME. Quiet to unsettled levels with a slight chance for
active conditions are expected on Day 3 (18 August) as effects of
the CME begin to subside.
III. Probabilidades del evento 16 Aug a 18 Aug
| Clase M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 15 Aug 101 Previsto 16 Aug-18 Aug 100/100/095 Media de 90 Días 15 Aug 126
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 14 Aug 007/007 Estimado Afr/Ap 15 Aug 006/005 Previsto Afr/Ap 16 Aug-18 Aug 007/010-010/014-009/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 16 Aug a 18 Aug
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 15% | 05% |
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