Viendo archivo del martes, 14 agosto 2012

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2012 Aug 14 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 227 Publicado el 2200Z a las 14 Aug 2012

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 13-2100Z hasta 14-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Region 1543 (N22W19) produced the largest event of the period, a C3/Sf flare at 14/0031Z. An Earth-directed, partial-halo CME was subsequently observed in SOHO/LASCO C3 coronagraph imagery beginning at 14/0130Z with an estimated plane-of-sky speed of 436 km/s. An additional Earth-directed, partial halo CME was observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery beginning at 13/1325Z with an estimated plane-of-sky speed of 606 km/s. This CME was associated with a C2 flare at 13/1240Z with associated Type II (estimated velocity of 736 km/s) and Type IV radio sweeps from Region 1543. Region 1543 showed little change and maintained a beta-gamma magnetic configuration. The remaining spotted regions were stable and quiet.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an isolated M-class flare.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 13-2100Z a 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet on day 1 (15 August). Quiet to unsettled levels with a slight chance for active conditions are expected on Day 2 (16 August) due to effects from the 13 August CME. Unsettled to active levels with a slight chance for minor storm conditions are expected on Day 3 (17 August) due to effects from the 14 August CME.
III. Probabilidades del evento 15 Aug a 17 Aug
Clase M15%15%15%
Clase X01%01%01%
Protón01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       14 Aug 106
  Previsto   15 Aug-17 Aug  105/100/100
  Media de 90 Días        14 Aug 127
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 13 Aug  008/010
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 14 Aug  008/008
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 15 Aug-17 Aug  005/005-007/010-009/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 15 Aug a 17 Aug
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo05%10%10%
Tormenta Menor01%01%05%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo15%15%20%
Tormenta Menor15%20%20%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%10%15%

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