Viendo archivo del lunes, 10 septiembre 2012
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2012 Sep 10 2325 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 254 Publicado el 2200Z a las 10 Sep 2012IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 09-2100Z hasta 10-2100Z Solar activity increased to moderate levels. Region
1564 (S12W69) produced an M1 flare at 09/2236Z. Regions 1564 and
1567 (N16E14) produced occasional C-class flares. A filament
eruption was observed in SDO 304 imagery at approximately 1000Z from
the southwest quadrant. An associated CME was observed over the
south pole and had an estimated plane of sky speed of 420 km/s.
This CME is not expected to be geoeffective at this time, pending
further analysis. Newly numbered Region 1569 (S11E65) rotated onto
the disk as an A-type Hax spot group, although additional trailer
spots appeared to be rotating into view.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for an isolated M-class flare for the next three days
(11-13 September).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 09-2100Z a 10-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels throughout the period.
A solar sector boundary crossing was observed at the ACE spacecraft
at about 1300Z. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet levels with a chance for unsettled levels
during the next three days (11-13 September).
III. Probabilidades del evento 11 Sep a 13 Sep
| Clase M | 20% | 20% | 10% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 10 Sep 111 Previsto 11 Sep-13 Sep 115/110/105 Media de 90 Días 10 Sep 124
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 09 Sep 006/004 Estimado Afr/Ap 10 Sep 005/005 Previsto Afr/Ap 11 Sep-13 Sep 007/005-007/007-007/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 11 Sep a 13 Sep
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 10% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 10% | 05% |
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