Viendo archivo del domingo, 1 abril 2012
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2012 Apr 01 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 092 Publicado el 2200Z a las 01 Apr 2012IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 31-2100Z hasta 01-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Only minor B-class/Sf
flares were observed, one from Region 1444 (N21W86) at 31/2107 and
from 1450 (N17E22) at 01/1454Z. The event from Region 1444 was
associated with a narrow eruption visible in SDO/AIA 304 imagery.
The ejecta is not expected to be geoeffective. The remaining
regions were quiet and magnetically simple.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low with a slight chance for a C-class flare for the first
two days of the period (02-03 April). The probability of a C class
event increases on Day 3 (04 April) with the anticipated return of
Old Region 1434 (S22 L=207).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 31-2100Z a 01-2100Z
The geomagneic field was quiet. Solar wind speed measured at the ACE
spacecraft gradually declined from around 380 km/s at the beginning
of the period to about 320 km/s by the end. At approximately
01/0800Z, ACE indicated a solar sector boundary crossing to a
negative orientation accompanied by increased density and slight (-5
nT) southward Bz.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to begin the period at quiet levels. On Day 3 (04 April),
it will become unsettled with the possiblity of an isolated active
period as a coronal hole high speed stream becomes geoeffective.
III. Probabilidades del evento 02 Apr a 04 Apr
| Clase M | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 01 Apr 107 Previsto 02 Apr-04 Apr 110/115/125 Media de 90 Días 01 Apr 118
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 31 Mar 004/004 Estimado Afr/Ap 01 Apr 006/006 Previsto Afr/Ap 02 Apr-04 Apr 006/005-006/005-007/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 02 Apr a 04 Apr
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 15% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 15% |
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