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Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2012 Mar 05 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 065 Publicado el 2200Z a las 05 Mar 2012IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 04-2100Z hasta 05-2100Z Solar activity has been high. An X1/2b flare occurred
at 05/0409Z from Region 1429 (N17E41). This flare was associated
with a full halo CME with a LASCO C3 plane of sky speed of about
1340 km/sec. Region 1429 has a beta-delta magnetic class with an
area of approximately 810 millionths, and appears to be growing. The
region produced additional M-class flares during the period. New
Region 1431 (S27W36) was numbered today and is a small B-type
sunspot group.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate, but there is a chance for additional major flare activity
and/or a greater than 10 MeV proton event from Region 1429.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 04-2100Z a 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been mostly quiet to unsettled with the
exception of some active to minor storm periods at high latitudes. A
greater than 10 MeV proton flux enhancement began at about 05/0030Z.
Flux levels remained elevated throughout the day and reached a peak
of 3.9 pfu at 05/1630Z. The initial increase was associated with the
long duration M2 flare of 04 March, but additional particles were
also contributed by todays X1/CME event. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the
period.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active for day 1 (06 Mar) due to
combined effects from the M4/CME event observed on 04 March and a
favorably positioned coronal hole high speed stream. Active
conditions with a chance for minor storm periods are forecast for
the second day (07 Mar) due to a expected glancing blow from todays
X1/full halo CME. Predominantly unsettled levels are expected for
the third day (08 Mar).
III. Probabilidades del evento 06 Mar a 08 Mar
| Clase M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Clase X | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Protón | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 05 Mar 132 Previsto 06 Mar-08 Mar 135/140/140 Media de 90 Días 05 Mar 125
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 04 Mar 010/014 Estimado Afr/Ap 05 Mar 007/008 Previsto Afr/Ap 06 Mar-08 Mar 012/015-013/020-010/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 06 Mar a 08 Mar
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 30% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 35% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 30% | 40% | 10% |
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