Viendo archivo del domingo, 26 febrero 2012
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2012 Feb 26 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 057 Publicado el 2200Z a las 26 Feb 2012IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 25-2100Z hasta 26-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 1421 (N14W48) produced
a C1 flare at 26/1125Z. New flux emergence appeared to the west of
Regions 1423 (N17E29) and 1424 (N07E39) and were numbered Regions
1425 (N18E12) and 1426 (N10E12) respectively. Two CMEs were
observed during the reporting period; the first, observed in
SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery at 26/0200Z off the NE limb and the second at
26/0636Z off the NW limb. Neither are expected to be geoeffective.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a chance for C-class activity for the next three days (27 -
29 February).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 25-2100Z a 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet with an isolated active period
observed at high latitudes at 26/0900 - 1200Z. The >10 MeV proton
enhancement that began early on 25 February continued with a maximum
value of 4.6 pfu at 26/0055Z.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active with isolated minor storm periods
possible on day 1 (27 February) as the 24 February CME is expected
to be geoeffective. Quiet to unsettled with isolated active
conditions are expected on day 2 (28 February). Mostly quiet
conditions are expected on day 3 (29 February). There is a slight
chance for a >10 MeV proton event due to shock enhancement of the
proton levels on days 1 - 2 (27 - 28 February).
III. Probabilidades del evento 27 Feb a 29 Feb
| Clase M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 10% | 10% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 26 Feb 107 Previsto 27 Feb-29 Feb 100/100/100 Media de 90 Días 26 Feb 129
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 25 Feb 003/006 Estimado Afr/Ap 26 Feb 006/008 Previsto Afr/Ap 27 Feb-29 Feb 011/015-010/010-004/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 27 Feb a 29 Feb
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 20% | 05% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 25% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 20% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 15% | 10% | 05% |
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