Viendo archivo del sábado, 25 febrero 2012
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2012 Feb 25 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 056 Publicado el 2200Z a las 25 Feb 2012IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 24-2100Z hasta 25-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Umbral separation was
observed in Region 1422 (N15W78). Slight decay was observed in the
trailing spots of Region 1424 (N08E52). The rest of the spot groups
were relatively quiet and stable. A filament eruption on the SE
limb was observed in SDO/AIA 304 imagery beginning at 24/1911Z. A
corresponding CME off the SE limb was observed in LASCO C2 imagery
beginning at 24/1948Z. The CME is not expected to be geoeffective.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a chance for C-class activity for the next three days (26 -
28 February).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 24-2100Z a 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. Isolated
major storm conditions were observed at high latitudes (College)
during the periods ending at 25/1200Z and 25/1500Z. A greater than
10 MeV proton enhancement began at approximately 25/0330Z and
reached a maximum of 3 pfu at 25/1830Z and continued to be enhanced
by the end of the reporting period. The event did not reach event
threshold and likely originated from a backside event.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet on day 1 (26 February). Early on day 2
(27 February), unsettled to active conditions are expected with
minor storm periods possible due to the expected arrival of the 24
February CME. Conditions are expected to calm to quiet to unsettled
levels with active periods possible by day 3 (28 February).
III. Probabilidades del evento 26 Feb a 28 Feb
| Clase M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 25 Feb 108 Previsto 26 Feb-28 Feb 100/100/100 Media de 90 Días 25 Feb 129
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 24 Feb 006/004 Estimado Afr/Ap 25 Feb 004/006 Previsto Afr/Ap 26 Feb-28 Feb 004/005-011/015-010/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 26 Feb a 28 Feb
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 05% | 25% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 30% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 25% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 15% | 10% |
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