Viendo archivo del jueves, 1 septiembre 2011
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2011 Sep 01 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 244 Publicado el 2200Z a las 01 Sep 2011IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 31-2100Z hasta 01-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 1283 (N12E49) produced
two C2/Sf flares during the period, the first one at 01/1248Z and
the second one at 01/1822Z. The region exhibited trailer spot growth
and remained a beta magnetic configuration. Region 1282 (N25W26) had
intermediate spot decay between the leader and trailer, but some
growth in the leader section of the region. The remainder of the
regions were quiet and stable. No Earth-directed CMEs were detected
during the period.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
through the period (02 - 04 September) with a slight chance for
M-class activity.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 31-2100Z a 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. Solar wind speeds, as measured at
the ACE satellite, showed a steady decline from about 350 km/s to
end the period near 290 km/s. The Bz component of the interplanetary
magnetic field did not vary much beyond +/- 2 nT.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet levels during day one (02 September).
Activity is expected to increase to quiet to unsettled levels, with
isolated active periods, on days two and three (03 - 04 September).
This increase in activity is due to a recurrent coronal hole high
speed stream that is expected to rotate into a geoeffective
position.
III. Probabilidades del evento 02 Sep a 04 Sep
| Clase M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 01 Sep 112 Previsto 02 Sep-04 Sep 110/110/110 Media de 90 Días 01 Sep 097
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 31 Aug 001/002 Estimado Afr/Ap 01 Sep 002/005 Previsto Afr/Ap 02 Sep-04 Sep 005/005-008/008-008/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 02 Sep a 04 Sep
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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