Viendo archivo del viernes, 2 septiembre 2011

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2011 Sep 02 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 245 Publicado el 2200Z a las 02 Sep 2011

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 01-2100Z hasta 02-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels due a to C1/Sf flare at 02/1516Z from Region 1281 (S20E01). During the period, the region decayed slightly in area and spot count and remained a D-type, bi-polar spot group. Region 1283 (N13E37) produced an impulsive B8/Sf flare at 02/0852Z. The region showed penumbral development in the trailer spots and was classified as a D-type, bi-polar spot group. Region 1282 (N25W40) indicated an increase in area and longitudinal extent and was classified as an E-type, bi-polar spot group. A CME was observed lifting off the SE limb, first seen in SOHO LASCO/C2 imagery at 02/0748Z. A plane-of-sky speed was estimated at 375 km/s. The source of this CME appears to have originated from a filament channel centered near S28E42. Material motion was first observed on SDO/AIA 193 imagery at 02/0554Z. At this time, there does not appear to be an Earthward-directed component.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low through the period (03 - 05 September) with a slight chance for M-class activity.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 01-2100Z a 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. Solar wind speeds, as measured at the ACE spacecraft, were steady below 300 km/s through the period. A phi angle change from negative (toward) to positive (away) was observed at approximately 02/0900Z. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field was predominately negative through the period at about -4 nT.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels, with a slight chance for active periods, on days one and two (03 - 04 September). This increase in activity is due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream expected to rotate into a geoeffective position early on 03 September. By day three (05 September), field activity is expected to return to mostly quiet levels.
III. Probabilidades del evento 03 Sep a 05 Sep
Clase M10%10%10%
Clase X01%01%01%
Protón01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       02 Sep 115
  Previsto   03 Sep-05 Sep  115/115/110
  Media de 90 Días        02 Sep 097
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 01 Sep  001/003
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 02 Sep  003/005
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 03 Sep-05 Sep  008/008-008/008-005/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 03 Sep a 05 Sep
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo20%20%15%
Tormenta Menor05%05%01%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo25%25%20%
Tormenta Menor10%10%05%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%

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