Viendo archivo del miércoles, 17 agosto 2011
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2011 Aug 17 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 229 Publicado el 2200Z a las 17 Aug 2011IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 16-2100Z hasta 17-2100Z Solar activity was low. Both Regions 1271 (N16E50) and
1272 (S19E55) produced C-class events during the summary period.
The largest was a C3 from Region 1271 at 17/1119Z. Region 1271
ended the period as an Esi type spot group with beta-gamma-delta
magnetic characteristics. New Region 1273 (S18W03) was numbered
today and classified as a Bxo type spot group with simple beta
magnetic characteristics. A CME from Region 1272 was observed in
SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery at 17/0248Z with a plane-of-sky speed of about
550 km/s. This CME is not expected to be geoeffective.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low.
Continued C-class events are expected from Regions 1271 and 1272,
There is a slight chance for an M-class event given the increasing
size and complexity of Region 1271.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 16-2100Z a 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Wind speed at the ACE
spacecraft continued to decline through the summary period, ending
near 420 km/s.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet for the next three days (18-20 August).
III. Probabilidades del evento 18 Aug a 20 Aug
| Clase M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Clase X | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 17 Aug 098 Previsto 18 Aug-20 Aug 098/100/100 Media de 90 Días 17 Aug 096
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 16 Aug 006/008 Estimado Afr/Ap 17 Aug 008/008 Previsto Afr/Ap 18 Aug-20 Aug 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 18 Aug a 20 Aug
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 05% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 00% | 00% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 05% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 05% |
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