Viendo archivo del jueves, 18 agosto 2011
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2011 Aug 18 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 230 Publicado el 2200Z a las 18 Aug 2011IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 17-2100Z hasta 18-2100Z Solar activity was low. Both Regions 1271 (N15E38) and
1272 (S22E41) produced C1/Sf flares during the past 24 hours.
Region 1271 became more consolidated during the period, but remained
a large Ehc type spot group with beta magnetic characteristics.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for moderate activity. The continued persistence of
Region 1271, as well as the return of old Region 1261 on Day 2 (20
Aug), make moderate activity more probable. During the last
rotation, old Region 1261 produced five M-class events including an
M9 and CME on 04 August.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 17-2100Z a 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet and the ambient solar wind
unremarkable. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous
orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly quiet for the first two days of the
forecast period (19-20 Aug). A recurrent coronal hole high speed
stream is expected to become geoeffective on Day 3 (21 Aug) leading
to unsettled conditions with a chance for active periods at high
latitudes.
III. Probabilidades del evento 19 Aug a 21 Aug
| Clase M | 45% | 45% | 45% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 18 Aug 098 Previsto 19 Aug-21 Aug 098/100/100 Media de 90 Días 18 Aug 096
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 17 Aug 006/006 Estimado Afr/Ap 18 Aug 005/005 Previsto Afr/Ap 19 Aug-21 Aug 005/005-005/005-010/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 19 Aug a 21 Aug
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 05% | 10% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 05% | 10% | 50% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 10% |
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