Viendo archivo del martes, 16 agosto 2011
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2011 Aug 16 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 228 Publicado el 2200Z a las 16 Aug 2011IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 15-2100Z hasta 16-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 1271 (N15E62) produced
a C1 flare at 16/0025Z. New Region 1272 (S19E67) was numbered today
and produced a B6 flare at 16/1110Z. Another flux region emerged in
the southeast quadrant of the visible solar disk near S17E14 and is
being monitored for growth. All regions were magnetically simple.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. C-class events are likely from both Region 1271 and
1272 with a remote chance for an M-class event.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 15-2100Z a 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled under the continued
influence of a coronal hole high speed stream. Wind speed at the
ACE spacecraft was generally about 450 km/s, rising to approximately
600 km/s between 16/03Z to 16/10Z. The Bz component of the
interplanetary magnetic field ranged from near +5 to -7 nT.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on Day 1 (17 August), returning to
mostly quiet conditions on Days 2 and 3 (18-19 August) as the
coronal hole high speed stream effects diminish.
III. Probabilidades del evento 17 Aug a 19 Aug
| Clase M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 16 Aug 093 Previsto 17 Aug-19 Aug 095/095/095 Media de 90 Días 16 Aug 096
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 15 Aug 009/013 Estimado Afr/Ap 16 Aug 010/012 Previsto Afr/Ap 17 Aug-19 Aug 008/010-005/005-005/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 17 Aug a 19 Aug
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 20% | 05% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 01% |
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