Viendo archivo del lunes, 15 agosto 2011
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2011 Aug 16 0405 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
:::::::::: CORRECTED COPY :::::::::: SDF Número 227 Publicado el 2200Z a las 15 Aug 2011IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 14-2100Z hasta 15-2100Z Solar activity has been low. Newly assigned Region
1271 (N17E74) produced a C1 flare at 15/0454Z. A C3 flare at
15/1120Z originated from a region on the southeast limb, not yet on
the disk. Both regions produced several B-class flares.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low with C-class events likely.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 14-2100Z a 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active during the past 24 hours
with a brief minor storm period at Boulder from 15/0000 - 0300Z,
under the continued influence of a coronal hole high speed stream.
ACE solar wind data indicated velocities up to 560 km/s, density up
to 9 p/cc, and the southward component of the IMF (Bz) down to -9
nT.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with a chance for active
conditions on days 1 and 2 (16-17 Aug). Day 3 (18 Aug) is expected
to return to quiet levels as effects from the coronal hole high
speed stream begin to wane.
III. Probabilidades del evento 16 Aug a 18 Aug
| Clase M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 15 Aug 090 Previsto 16 Aug-18 Aug 095/095/095 Media de 90 Días 15 Aug 096
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 14 Aug 008/009 Estimado Afr/Ap 15 Aug 010/015 Previsto Afr/Ap 16 Aug-18 Aug 010/010-008/010-005/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 16 Aug a 18 Aug
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 30% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 15% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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