Viendo archivo del domingo, 14 agosto 2011
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2011 Aug 14 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 226 Publicado el 2200Z a las 14 Aug 2011IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 13-2100Z hasta 14-2100Z Solar activity has been very low. The largest X-ray
enhancement of the past 24 hours reached B9 level around 14/1030Z
originating from an area near the northeast limb. There are
currently no spotted regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very
low for the next three days (15-17 August). There is a chance for a
C-class X-ray event throughout the period with the new region on the
northeast limb being the most likely source of activity.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 13-2100Z a 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Observations of the
solar wind from the ACE spacecraft indicated elevated speeds
reaching up to 500 km/s, consistent with a high speed stream from a
favorably positioned coronal hole. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain quiet to unsettled with a chance for active
periods due to the coronal hole high speed stream.
III. Probabilidades del evento 15 Aug a 17 Aug
| Clase M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 14 Aug 088 Previsto 15 Aug-17 Aug 090/090/090 Media de 90 Días 14 Aug 096
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 13 Aug 004/005 Estimado Afr/Ap 14 Aug 012/012 Previsto Afr/Ap 15 Aug-17 Aug 010/010-010/010-008/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 15 Aug a 17 Aug
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 35% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 15% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 01% |
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