Viendo archivo del jueves, 23 junio 2011
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2011 Jun 23 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 174 Publicado el 2200Z a las 23 Jun 2011IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 22-2100Z hasta 23-2100Z Solar activity was very low. There were three B class
flares in the past 24 hours. Region 1240 (S18E02) produced a B2 at
0213Z and appeared to be slowly growing. Region 1236 (N16W46) was
unchanged but produced a B5 at 1240Z and a B4 at 1407Z. Region 1239
(N16W27) was slowly decaying.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a chance for an isolated C-class flare.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 22-2100Z a 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been unsettled to active for the past 24
hours. ACE solar wind data showed elevated velocities around 600 to
700 km/s consistent with a high speed stream from a favorably
positioned coronal hole. A sudden impulse was observed at 0258Z and
measured 22 nT at the Boulder magnetometer. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the
period.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be active with a chance for minor storm periods at
mid-latitudes and isolated major storm periods at high latitudes for
tomorrow (24 June). This activity is expected as a response to the
arrival of the halo CME observed on 21 June. Conditions are
expected to decrease to unsettled to active levels for the second
day (25 June), and quiet to unsettled levels for the third day (26
June).
III. Probabilidades del evento 24 Jun a 26 Jun
| Clase M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 23 Jun 096 Previsto 24 Jun-26 Jun 095/095/090 Media de 90 Días 23 Jun 103
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 22 Jun 007/012 Estimado Afr/Ap 23 Jun 018/025 Previsto Afr/Ap 24 Jun-26 Jun 025/030-012/018-007/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 24 Jun a 26 Jun
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 15% | 05% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 10% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 20% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 20% | 05% |
| Tormenta Menor | 35% | 15% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 30% | 10% | 01% |
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